What is Base Rate Fallacy?

Understanding Cognitive Biases

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The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic, general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).

Definition

Imagine running an infectious disease test on a population A of 1000 persons, in which 2% are infected. The test has a false positive rate of 5% (0.05) and no false negative rate. Only 20 of the 69 total people with a positive test result are actually infected.

Example

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