What is Base Rate Fallacy?

Understanding Cognitive Biases


The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic, general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).


Imagine running an infectious disease test on a population A of 1000 persons, in which 2% are infected. The test has a false positive rate of 5% (0.05) and no false negative rate. Only 20 of the 69 total people with a positive test result are actually infected.


Everything you need to know about cognitive biases - definitions, examples, experiment.